Compensatory picks in the National Football League are awarded based on a formula.

Nobody knows exactly what that formula is, but there are some people in the media and content creation space that

The Buffalo Bills received a fourth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft due to the net loss of compensatory free agents (compensatory free agents being unrestricted free agents whose contracts expired naturally with their original team and signed with a new team for over a certain dollar threshold). Guard (now center) Connor McGovern and wide receiver Deonte Harty were compensatory free agents coming onto the team, while linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, running back Devin Singletary, and quarterback Case Keenum were compensatory free agents leaving the team. Three out and two in leaves a net of negative one, making the Bills eligible for a compensatory pick. The net of negative one in this case was the former starting linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who signed a four-year contract with the Chicago Bearswith an average net annual value of $18 million. It was widely predicted that this loss would garner the Bills a third-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft — to the point where Nick Korte openly opined that the NFL Management Council (the body in charge of assigning compensatory picks) may have made a mistake in the 3rd/4th round cutoff for pick allotment:

The Bills weren’t the only team expected to get a third that ended up being a fourth, though. The San Francisco 49ers (for the loss of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey) and the Cincinnati Bengals (for the departure of safety Jessie Bates) were also expected to get third-round picks.

As Nick pointed out, this isn’t the first time the council made an error. In 2015, they announced late in March, after free agency had started, that a “database error” had incorrectly awarded the Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, and Pittsburgh Steelers their compensatory picks. The Broncos’ selection ended up dropping down a round, while the Steelers and Panthers picks ended up jumping up one round.

Bills general manager Brandon Beane himself had stated that the team expected to receive a third-round pick in the compensatory system and that he was making plans around that in the 2023 run of free agency to not jeopardize that expected pick.

Whether the governing body of compensatory picks made an error here or not is unknown since the precise formula for awarding the picks isn’t published, but unless there is another mea culpa by the league, the Bills will have to make due with a compensatory pick one round lower than they would have preferred.

Compensatory picks in the National Football League are awarded based on a formula.

Nobody knows exactly what that formula is, but there are some people in the media and content creation space that have a really good handle on it. Nick Korte from “Over The Cap” is widely considered one of the best in the business when it comes to understanding the nuances that go into NFL teams being awarded compensatory picks and specifically, where they’ll be located in the draft.

The Buffalo Bills received a fourth-round

pick in the 2024 NFL Draft due to the net loss of compensatory free agents (compensatory free agents being unrestricted free agents whose contracts expired naturally with their original team and signed with a new team for over a certain dollar threshold). Guard (now center) Connor McGovern and wide receiver Deonte Harty were compensatory free agents coming onto the team, while linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, running back Devin Singletary, and quarterback Case Keenum were compensatory free agents leaving the team. Three out and two in leaves a net of negative one, making the Bills eligible for a compensatory pick. The net of negative one in this case was the former starting linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who signed a four-year contract with the Chicago Bears with an average net annual value of $18 million. It was widely predicted that this loss would garner the Bills a third-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft — to the point where Nick Korte openly opined that the NFL Management Council (the body in charge of assigning compensatory picks) may have made a mistake in the 3rd/4th round cutoff for pick allotment:

The Bills weren’t the only team expected to get a third that ended up being a fourth, though. The San Francisco 49ers (for the loss of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey) and the Cincinnati Bengals (for the departure of safety Jessie Bates) were also expected to get third-round picks.

As Nick pointed out, this isn’t the first time the council made an error. In 2015, they announced late in March, after free agency had started, that a “database error” had incorrectly awarded the Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, and Pittsburgh Steelers their compensatory picks. The Broncos’ selection ended up dropping down a round, while the Steelers and Panthers picks ended up jumping up one round.

Bills general manager Brandon Beane himself had stated that the team expected to receive a third-round pick in the compensatory system and that he was making plans around that in the 2023 run of free agency to not jeopardize that expected pick.

Whether the governing body of compensatory picks made an error here or not is unknown since the precise formula for awarding the picks isn’t published, but unless there is another mea culpa by the league, the Bills will have to make due with a compensatory pick one round lower than they would have preferred.

Compensatory picks in the National Football League are awarded based on a formula.

Nobody knows exactly what that formula is, but there are some people in the media and content creation space that have a really good handle on it. Nick Korte from “Over The Cap” is widely considered one of the best in the business when it comes to understanding the nuances that go into NFL teams being awarded compensatory picks and specifically, where they’ll be located in the draft.

The Buffalo Bills received a fourth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft due to the net loss of compensatory free agents (compensatory free agents being unrestricted free agents whose contracts expired naturally with their original team and signed with a new team for over a certain dollar threshold). Guard (now center) Connor McGovern and wide receiver Deonte Harty were compensatory free agents coming onto the team, while linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, running back Devin Singletary, and quarterback Case Keenum were compensatory free agents leaving the team. Three out and two in leaves a net of negative one, making the Bills eligible for a compensatory pick. The net of negative one in this case was the former starting linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who signed a four-year contract with the Chicago Bears with an average net annual value of $18 million. It was widely predicted that this loss would garner the Bills a third-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft — to the point where Nick Korte openly opined that the NFL Management Council (the body in charge of assigning compensatory picks) may have made a mistake in the 3rd/4th round cutoff for pick allotment:

The Bills weren’t the only team expected to get a third that ended up being a fourth, though. The San Francisco 49ers (for the loss of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey) and the Cincinnati Bengals (for the departure of safety Jessie Bates) were also expected to get third-round picks.

As Nick pointed out, this isn’t the first time the council made an error. In 2015, they announced late in March, after free agency had started, that a “database error” had incorrectly awarded the Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, and Pittsburgh Steelers their compensatory picks. The Broncos’ selection ended up dropping down a round, while the Steelers and Panthers picks ended up jumping up one round.

Bills general manager Brandon Beane himself had stated that the team expected to receive a third-round pick in the compensatory system and that he was making plans around that in the 2023 run of free agency to not jeopardize that expected pick.

Whether the governing body of compensatory picks made an error here or not is unknown since the precise formula for awarding the picks isn’t published, but unless there is another mea culpa by the league, the Bills will have to make due with a compensatory pick one round lower than they would have preferred.

Compensatory picks in the National Football League are awarded based on a formula.

Nobody knows exactly what that formula is, but there are some people in the media and content creation space that have a really good handle on it. Nick Korte from “Over The Cap” is widely considered one of the best in the business when it comes to understanding the nuances that go into NFL teams being awarded compensatory picks and specifically, where they’ll be located in the draft.

The Buffalo Bills received a fourth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft due to the net loss of compensatory free agents (compensatory free agents being unrestricted free agents whose contracts expired naturally with their original team and signed with a new team for over a certain dollar threshold). Guard (now center) Connor McGovern and wide receiver Deonte Harty were compensatory free agents coming onto the team, while linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, running back Devin Singletary, and quarterback Case Keenum were compensatory free agents leaving the team. Three out and two in leaves a net of negative one, making the Bills eligible for a compensatory pick. The net of negative one in this case was the former starting linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who signed a four-year contract with the Chicago Bears with an average net annual value of $18 million. It was widely predicted that this loss would garner the Bills a third-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft — to the point where Nick Korte openly opined that the NFL Management Council (the body in charge of assigning compensatory picks) may have made a mistake in the 3rd/4th round cutoff for pick allotment:

The Bills weren’t the only team expected to get a third that ended up being a fourth, though. The San Francisco 49ers (for the loss of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey) and the Cincinnati Bengals (for the departure of safety Jessie Bates) were also expected to get third-round picks.

As Nick pointed out, this isn’t the first time the council made an error. In 2015, they announced late in March, after free agency had started, that a “database error” had incorrectly awarded the Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, and Pittsburgh Steelers their compensatory picks. The Broncos’ selection ended up dropping down a round, while the Steelers and Panthers picks ended up jumping up one round.

Bills general manager Brandon Beane himself had stated that the team expected to receive a third-round pick in the compensatory system and that he was making plans around that in the 2023 run of free agency to not jeopardize that expected pick.

Whether the governing body of compensatory picks made an error here or not is unknown since the precise formula for awarding the picks isn’t published, but unless there is another mea culpa by the league, the Bills will have to make due with a compensatory pick one round lower than they would have preferred.